What the forecast says

The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index projects its fourth-quarter truckload rate-per-mile measure at 23.4% above its January 2018 baseline, 14.7% higher than a year earlier and the highest level since the first quarter of 2022.

The report projects the less-than-truckload rate-per-pound index at 82.5% above the baseline, up 8.8% year over year. AFS describes that as the first reading above 80% and the third consecutive record quarter.

Fuel and parcel pressure

AFS says fuel surcharges increased sharply year over year in September. Its parcel fuel-surcharge measure reached 30% that month, and the company estimates that most of the increase came from carrier surcharge-table changes rather than the underlying fuel price alone.

The index projects ground-parcel pricing at 43.3% above the January 2018 baseline and express parcel at 20.3% above it. The release attributes the broader pressure to fuel costs, holiday demand and constrained capacity.

What it means for drivers and fleets

A higher rate index can support carrier revenue, but it does not guarantee that a specific driver or fleet will receive a matching increase. Lane mix, contracts, accessorials, empty miles and fuel-surcharge terms still determine actual results.

This is an industry forecast produced from AFS customer shipment data, not a government rate order or a completed quarter. Owner-operators and small fleets should compare contract and spot offers against their own fuel, insurance and utilization costs rather than treating the index as a quoted market rate.

Primary sources and supporting records

Related CDL practice

No corrections have been recorded for this article. Read our editorial and corrections policy.